Predicting Who Will Win, Should Win and Who Should’ve Been Nominated
The 2020 Oscars are upon us. A new class of Oscar nominees have been unveiled and the speculation has run rampantly. With the ceremony set for February 9, we are closer than we have ever been to the Oscars following the announcement of nominees. This years ceremony certainly may lack any surprises in most of the categories. However, this year may give us a surprise in the Best Picture race. As always, a few front runners have emerged. But, which precursors will be the indicator? The guild awards have mostly finished their awards. Obviously, nothing is certain yet, but we know a few of the directions the night could go.
I will give my predictions here. Make sure to stay tuned to this post however, as I may change my mind in the coming weeks. Until then, I will break down my picks and hopes for the big six categories. I will also include simple breakdowns of who I think will win some of the other categories. Many of the below the line technical awards are notoriously difficult to predict. I will give the nominees in the categories, who I think will win, who should win, an upset pick and one addition I would make to each category. Below, I will give my predicted winner for each other category that will be giving an award.
BEST PICTURE
The Nominees
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Parasite
What Will Win: 1917
What Should Win: The Irishman
If There’s an Upset: Parasite
Should’ve Been Here: Uncut Gems
Breakdown: Among this group of nominees, there’s none I’d really be displeased with. Joker aside, which I don’t think is an awful film, a win from any of these films would be okay. I don’t admire Ford v Ferarri or Jojo as much as some. 1917 appears to have the inside edge after a Producers Guild Win. The PGA has prediction 21 of the last 30 Best Picture winners since the award was first given. However, Parasite is making a strong last minute push with a big win at SAG, and major support for Bong Joon-ho.
BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saorise Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zelleweger, Judy
Who Will Win: Zelleweger
Who Should Win: Ronan
If There’s an Upset: Johansson
Should’ve Been Here: Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Breakdown: SAG and Golden Globes and went with Zelleweger. I personally don’t understand the love for the performance. Johansson seems to be the most likely upset if there is one. Last year Glenn Close took home the precursors and Olivia Colman pulled off the shocker on Oscar night. This isn’t as competitive as it was last year. However, anything can happen at the Oscars. Ultimately, this will likely go Zelleweger who will get her second trophy.
BEST ACTOR
The Nominees
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Who Will Win: Phoenix
Who Should Win: Driver
If There’s an Upset: Driver
Should’ve Been Here: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Breakdown: This appears to be Joaquin’s moment. Good for him, it’s a really good performance. Driver could be the one who pulls off an upset here. He seems to have a lot of Academy support. However, the Sandman was robbed. DiCaprio has a ton of admirers in the Academy but he won back in 2016 so it seems unlikely he has a shot here. Banderas gives one of my favorite performances of last year but he’s out too. Thankfully, one of our best actors will finally get his due. I’m okay wit that.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Who Will Win: Dern
Who Should Win: Pugh
If There’s an Upset: Pugh or Johansson
Should’ve Been Here: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Breakdown: The two supporting categories are about as close as it comes to locked up. Dern will get her due for her terrific work in Marriage Story. Pugh has a chance, she may have given my favorite performances of last year. They double dipped for ScarJo, the first time that has happened since Cate Blanchett in 2007. I’m pretty confident in saying Dern will be holding the Oscar on February 9. However, stranger things have happened.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Who Will Win: Pitt
Who Should Win: Pitt
If There’s an Upset: Pesci? I don’t know.
Should’ve Been Here: Song Kang-ho, Parasite
Breakdown: Thankfully, there isn’t much to say here. Pitt has this locked up. In fact, if he doesn’t win, well, that would certainly be the biggest surprise of the night aside from some huge drama in Best Picture. Pitt’s performance is a revelation and beyond that, he’s probably due for the “lifetime achievement” Oscar. Regardless, I can’t wait to see Pitt’s speech, and what a group of actors he will be beating for his first statue.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees
The Irishman, Martin Scorsese
Joker, Todd Phillips
1917, Sam Mendes
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Bong Joon-ho
Who Will Win: Mendes
Who Should Win: Bong
If There’s an Upset: Bong
Should’ve Been Here: Little Women, Greta Gerwig
Breakdown: I’m going out a limb here a little bit. Bong’s Parasite probably won’t win Best Picture. However, there’s precedent for this. After he lost best picture twice, Alfonso Cuaron won best director twice. Honestly, the only one I’d truly be upset with if they won is Phillips. To be blunt, I’m not sure why he’s here. Gerwig certainly should be here over him. As much as I’d like this to be the case, if Mendes wins, it certainly doesn’t guarantee a Parasite best picture win. I’m predicting a split, but, if Mendes wins here, it could spell a victory for 1917.
Predicted Winners in Other Categories
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Cinematography: 1917
Film Editing: Parasite
Original Score: Joker
Documentary: American Factory
International Feature (fka Best Foreign Language Film): Parasite
Original Song: (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again, Rocketman
Makeup/Hairstyling: Bombshell
Production Design: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Sound Editing: 1917
Sound Mixing: 1917
Visual Effects: Avengers: Endgame
Costume Design: Little Women
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Animated Short: Hair Love
Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Live Action Short: Brotherhood
What do you think will win? Make sure you comment and let me know who you want to see win as well. Also, I encourage you to seek out these movies cause there are a lot of great films nominated for Oscars.
Please post how you did.